What's a VEEC actually worth, and why isn't it climbing?

What sets the price?

A VEEC gets created when an accredited person, the business approved to create certificates and lodge the claim, registers a completed upgrade. Energy retailers have to hand in (surrender) a set number each year. So the price is just what retailers will pay the people who create them. It goes up and down with the gap between the target and the supply.

Two numbers do most of the work. The target sets demand. The shortfall penalty sets the ceiling. A retailer facing a $100 penalty for each certificate it's short isn't going to pay much more than $100 for one.

So why isn't the price climbing?

Because demand got cut. The yearly target dropped from 7.3 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2025 to 4.4 million in 2026. That's about 40 per cent fewer certificates retailers have to hand in.

That's the bit a lot of commentary leaves out. People see the rules tightening on which jobs qualify and assume fewer certificates means a higher price. But the target moved the other way, and it moved further.

What does the price actually mean for you?

Less than you'd think. The certificates belong to the accredited person unless your agreement says otherwise. Normally they sell the VEECs, and you get the value as an upfront discount on the customer's invoice, minus their service fee.

That split is a private deal between you and them, not a regulated rate. There's no published figure for what an installer should get per certificate. Anyone quoting you one like it's a rule is guessing. What you can do is know the market price on the day you're negotiating.

What I'd keep an eye on

• Next year's target, meaning how many certificates retailers have to hand in. It moves the price more than anything else, and it gets published.
• Your own agreement with the accredited person. The market price only helps you if your contract lets you share in it.
• Changes to which jobs earn certificates. If a job type gets taken out, fewer certificates get made, which pushes the price up. That's the opposite of a target cut.